Ranked-choice Voting Ballot Measures: Precinct-Level Analysis
Data
I analyze the partisan divide on the ranked choice issue using precinct level data from RCV ballot measures and the presidential elections that occurred simultaneously.
3 state ballot measures occurring from 2016-2020: Alaska, Maine, and Massachusestts
5 city RCV ballot measures from 2020: Albany, CA; Bloomington, MN; Boulder, CO; Eureka, CA; and Minnetonka, MN
Literature Review?
How do i even format this, like an academic article??
State Ballot Measures
In each state, higher precinct yes vote shares for RCV ballot measures were associated with higher vote shares for the Democratic presidential candidate in the same election.
However, Maine and Alaska had higher RCV yes shares than Massachusetts despite lower Democratic presidential vote shares.
City Ballot Measures
City ballot measures followed the same pattern.
All five cities were very Democratic.
Combined Results
City ballot measures follow a trend closer to that of Massachusetts.
Get rid of the following:
| Estimate | Std. Error | t value | Pr(>|t|) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Intercept) | 0.2003654 | 0.0042308 | 47.358579 | 0.00e+00 |
| dem_share | 0.6936409 | 0.0078582 | 88.269766 | 0.00e+00 |
| LocaleAlbany | -0.1524754 | 0.0364658 | -4.181326 | 2.97e-05 |
| LocaleBloomington | -0.1835867 | 0.0115574 | -15.884788 | 0.00e+00 |
| LocaleBoulder | -0.1268008 | 0.0080846 | -15.684214 | 0.00e+00 |
| LocaleEureka | -0.1164573 | 0.0224177 | -5.194886 | 2.00e-07 |
| LocaleMaine | -0.0190020 | 0.0039698 | -4.786622 | 1.80e-06 |
| LocaleMassachusetts | -0.2277636 | 0.0037196 | -61.232859 | 0.00e+00 |
| LocaleMinnetonka | -0.1663561 | 0.0134998 | -12.322845 | 0.00e+00 |
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